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I am a self proclaimed coffee addict and Executive Director of a non profit missions agency working primarily in the Mexican cities of Oaxaca, Guadalajara, and Ensenada. I've been married for over 30 years to Chelle, and we have one grown son, Joseph, a graduate of Auburn University in Alabama.

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Sunday, May 11, 2008

Barack or Hillary?


Let's take a few moments and consider the argument Hillary Clinton is making in her run for the Presidency. Based on how she interprets the results thus far, her claim to the nomination rests on two premises.

First, after the entire election season, she believes she will have more popular votes than Barack Obama. Her math only works if you include Florida and Michigan, which before the elections she agreed should not count because they broke the rules. In his book, Terry McAuliffe, her campaign chairman, recounts a conversation with Senator Carl Levin where McAuliffe stated that the rules are the rules and that breaking them would bring penalties and lost delegates. It is clear that the Clinton campaign understood the rules and had one idea before the race began, and another once she found she would need these results to win.

Her second premise is the belief that she will be a better candidate against John McCain in the bellwether states. Those are the states a candidate must win to grab the brass ring in November. Her belief is that since she has won a majority of the large states, and some other key states, she will stronger in November.

Analysis. All in my humble opinion. There is no way Hillary ends up with more delegates, even if you count Florida and Michigan. In the remaining primaries, Hillary will win big in West Virginia, Kentucky, and Puerto Rico. Obama will squeak out wins in Oregon, South Dakota, and Montana. It is possible, if you count Michigan and Florida, that she could win the popular vote. It is a remote chance, but it is possible. More likely, she will get within 100,000 votes. But again, for her to claim a victory here rests solely on a result that will be seen as breaking the previously agreed upon rules. Typically a behavior that brings a needs to improve result on your grade school report card.

Now she may be correct in her electability argument. It is a fact Obama did poorly in both Ohio and Pennsylvania. And he will be getting crushed this week in Appalachia. He lost Florida. Missouri was very very close. Those are all states that a democrat must win to get into the door at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

But let's say all of this true and we leave Michigan and Florida out. Here is what we will have. Obama will have more popular votes, more regular delegates, and more primary wins. Hillary is asking the super delegates to ignore the results and award her the nomination, not based on the vote, delegates, or how one played the game. But on a future claim, that may indeed be valid.

If you are a super delegate, do you really want to be part of a gang of people who tells the African American community that even when they play by the rules and win the race, that they still can't come to the dance?


Comments on "Barack or Hillary?"

 

Blogger Bullfrog said ... (9:12 AM) : 

I agree that HIllary is finished. Mathematically, she is done, and she knows it. I believe she is staying in in order to do as much damage to Obama's campaign as possible. Why? She wants to run again in 2012, and would rather run against McCain than an incumbent Democrat such as Obama.

 

Blogger Dave Miller said ... (11:18 AM) : 

I fear Bullfrog that you may be right. Pretty crummy politics.

 

Blogger CommuterJames said ... (1:36 PM) : 

Hilary doesn't want what is best for the democratic party, or the US. She wants what is best for Hilary. And just for that, if she wins the nomination, I and many like me will vote for McCain. Because I don't want another lying, selfish Clinton in the White House. I do like Obama tho...

 

Blogger Mike's America said ... (10:25 AM) : 

Hillary's claim is well founded. Obama only has the delegate lead based on caucus states, many of which will NEVER vote for a Dem in the fall.

Hillary's base of support is much wider and she would be a better candidate against McCain.

All the more reason to keep this race going and weaken Obama and the Democrat Party.

 

Blogger Dave Miller said ... (10:39 AM) : 

You could be right Mike. She does seems to win every category, except math one. We shall see.

 

Blogger CommuterJames said ... (8:03 AM) : 

She isn't just losing the caucus states. I think many people in the caucus states WILL vote for a dem in the fall because of two things: Most young people, especially those turning 18 and itchin' to vote, as well as college students, LOVE Obama. We are tired of old guy politicians because they just seem to play games. Second: A lot of people, not just young people, are begging not to have another Republican in the white house. Our current president's approval is hovering around what, 30% now? Thats a LOT of pissed off people who don't want another republican.

 

Blogger Dave Miller said ... (11:12 AM) : 

I think you may be right James. We should know a whole o more this weekend after the big Dem confab on Michigan and Florida.

 

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