The Mexican Elections... a step to the left, or two steps back?

***UPDATE BELOW*** As I write, Mexico is making final preparations for the presidential elections to be held tomorrow, July 1st.. The country seems as divided as the United States politically as roughly the same percentage of voters favor left leaning candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador of the PRD and Enrique Peña Nieto of the PRI. The third major candidate, Josefina Vazquez Mota of the PAN Party, has virtually no chance as polls show her trailing the top two candidates badly. Whoever wins, the election is going to have major consequences for the United States. Both Peña Nieto and Lopez Obrador are advocating policies in the drug war, which has claimed over 50,000 victims over the last 6 years, that would basically allow the free flow of drugs to the United States. Mexico is asking whether it is worth the cost in money and lives to fight a war over a product that is essentially passing through the country on the way to the wealthy drug users. Let me put it another way. Why should Mexican citizens die in a futile attempt to curtail an insatiable addiction of another country?  After all, Mexico is not a major player when it comes to drug use, rather, it is more of a transit route. Peña Nieto has said his administration will focus on crimes that directly affect the Mexican people.  That includes things like extortion, kidnapping and murder.  Lopez Obrador, in classic leftist rhetoric is saying he will take the military off the streets in six months and put his focus jobs for the millions of underemployed young people in the country. Notice that neither candidate is saying he will continue the war on drugs that was undertaken six years ago by current President, Felipe Calderone. As I listen to everyday people on the street, here is what I am sensing. It is time to return to the days of the PRI, the party that ruled Mexico for 70 years before finally losing in 2000 to PAN candidate Vicente Fox. I was in Mexico on the night he was elected and all I can say is that the country was ecstatic.  They had finally done it, had finally declawed the dinosaur.  And now, just 12 years later, they are ready to give that dinosaur life again. That is the view of the establishment.   Young people, the type that were partly responsible for the Arab Spring across the Middle East, are all in for Lopez Obrador.  But I do not think they have the numbers to make the difference. I believe Lopez Obrador dashed his own hopes to win the presidency by acting like a spoiled brat after he narrowly lost to Felipe Calderone in 2006.  If, after that election he had accepted defeat gracefully, rather than crying fraud and trying to set up a shadow government in exile, the people would have backed him heavily this time around. I will be in Oaxaca City all morning and the rural areas in the afternoon trying to get a sense of what is happening.  We are being told that a winner will be announced by midnight. Soon we will have a new President-Elect in Mexico and a new policy towards the United States.  Who can say where this will lead, except that it seems certain that whoever wins will be looking for a way to curtail the violence that has led to more deaths in Mexico in 6 years than we saw in the entire Vietnam War that so consumed our country. Want to read more? From the Washington Post From John Ackerman in The Nation AmericasMexico Blog Update As expected, Enrique Peña Nieto was elected the new president of Mexico.  His margin of victory however was much less than the polls showed.  In pre-election polling, he was leading Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador [AMLO] by over 10%.  His margin of victory will end up about 5%. AMLO has, like he did when he lost in 2006, cried fraud, although his supporters have turned up nothing that could even remotely change the final tally, even if everything he alleges were true. Mexico has worked hard to reform their system and for a majority of the country, there is a feeling that AMLO just cannot, or will not accept that he lost. I am sure this will lead to some protests around the country starting tomorrow when the official tallies are released.   Now we will wait for the upcoming changes in the war on drugs that has claimed so many lives...

Mexico Elections

Sunday, August 5 elections were held here in the southern Mexico state of Oaxaca. Following on the heels of months of civil unrest, many were expecting violence and protests. While I am happy to report that violence was almost non existent, I am not pleased with the results. Once again the Darth Vader of Mexican politics, the PRI, swept to victory across the entire state. This gives them control of all levels of the state government as they already own the governorship with the very unpopular Ulises Ruiz (URO) in charge. For those of you not well versed in what this means, let me try and explain. The PRI, won every national election in Mexico for over seventy years until Vicente Fox broke the string in 2000. They have held power in most of the poorest southern states all that time as well. This includes Oaxaca where almost 70% of the voters stayed home Sunday rather that participate in an election they felt would be won by PRI no matter how they voted. This is the attitude in an area where people are used to seeing votes bought and sold, intimidation, and outright rigging of elections. In a connected note, PRI was unable to break a string of three straight victories by the Nation Action Party (PAN) in Baja California. Despite spending a mountain of money, Jorge Hank Rhon was unable to beat the PAN candidate, Osuna Millan, to win the governorship of our close neighbor to the south. This is good for both Mexico, and the US as Millan and the PAN party are much better to deal with than either Jorge Hank or the PRI would be on our doorstep.

Dateline: Oaxaca

I am here in Oaxaca City, Mexico, the capital of the southern state of Oaxaca. This Sunday there will be a state election to elect new members of the various state and local governments , except the office of governor. In addition, there will be a protest march that same day. I am guessing that there will be about 50,000 people participating. The elections will come in the middle of a long struggle within Oaxaca for basic human rights for the primarily poor indigenous people of the state. This picture gives you a good example of what happens when poor folks try to take control of their own destiny and an out of control non functioning government steps in. This girl was part of strike by local teachers against the PRI backed government of Ulises Ruiz and the lack of funding for education and schools. Yesterday I was in an area of Oaxaca known as Colonia 3 de Mayo. Most of the homes had no water systems, and the electricity for this area was very provisional. The people lived in either homes made of corrugated tin, tree bark scraps, or tabicon, a local block product. There were very few roofs that were water proof, a real problem in an area that receives substantial rainfall between June and November. Most of the children had one change of clothes, one pair of shoes, and lacked all the basics of what we have come to know as a balanced diet. I went over to the school while I was there also. It had two rooms made of block. One for grades 1 - 6, and the other for kindergarten. Neither room was big enough as there were three other rooms made of corrugated tin to serve as overflow. The wells on the property were bone dry. I cannot begin to explain the pain, anger, and just plain hopelessness I felt while I was there. This area is less than 15 miles outside of the capital city. As the election draws near, pray for the people of Oaxaca. Pray for a people that desires nothing more than you and I do... a chance to work hard, earn a decent living, and see their kids grow up healthy, strong, and educated. I´ll keep you posted as I can on the results. If you would like to read more, click here. I have posted on this before.